Inflation

(photo by Jean-christophe Gougeion on Unsplash)

Prices for things we buy always seem to go up. Did your parents or grandparents ever say, “when I was a child, a candy bar only cost a nickel”. The cost of tolls on highways and bridges, train and bus fares, and parking meters inevitably goes up. They never drop. The price of gasoline fluctuates, but inevitably is most expensive during the times of year that we drive the most.

These price increases on their own would not be terrible if our annual salaries increased at a higher percentage than these expense price increases. Then we would still have money leftover. But for most workers, the cost of living always seems to increase at a higher rate than our annual salary raises, if we are lucky enough to get a raise at all.

Inflation is “a general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money” (Oxford Dictionary).

I realized quick that home ownership had hidden costs that never go away. When I first purchased my home, I did not realize that property taxes would go up every year. I thought that my fixed mortgage would be just that, fixed. Wrong.

Expenses can grow quickly if we do not pay attention. Cable companies reel us in with a special low price for the first three, six, or twelve months. And then the real, higher price kicks in. The vendor may even bump up prices at random times without notice. If we do not pay attention, these expense increases can go unnoticed for months before we realize what has happened. We must be vigilant towards keeping our expenses in check. Sometimes that means calling a vendor to complain and demand a better price.

Food is another cost that continues its upward trend. Spend fifty or one hundred dollars at the supermarket. And upon returning home to empty the grocery bag contents on the counter, we realize that the expensive cost did not procure much food. And the kicker is that the size of many products have mysteriously gotten smaller. So we not only pay more for the same product, but we get less product than before.

These inflation issues were already around pre-Covid. But the pandemic has added an extra layer of inflation. With many companies shutting down, especially at the beginning of the lockdown, many goods stopped being produced, while the demand for these products skyrocketed. Low supply combined with high demand means that companies will raise their prices because they know that many consumers will be willing to overpay to procure their desired products.

I wish that I was a consumer that did not have to care about price, so I could obtain things I desperately need right now during the pandemic. But my accountant brain seems to kick in whenever I see the higher-than-normal overpriced costs. I’ve been shopping for a car over the past year, and for a computer over the past few months. And I have yet to find what I’m looking for at a reasonable price. In my mind, the reasonable price of pre-covid was still expensive, but even that price would look good right now.

I have been using two old computers that don’t work as well as they used to. Actually one broke down a few months ago. And the one remaining computer runs through its power very quickly if it is not plugged in to electricity. And it also overheats at random times.

The car I drive is over twenty years old. Both last year and this year, the car has needed a lot of repairs. And while it is working okay right now, who knows when the next issue will arise, perhaps leaving me car-less.

For both of my desired purchases, car and computer, there are shortages of both in the marketplace because there is a shortage of computer chips. And the prices for each are astronomical, also due to this shortage. Today I searched online for a computer and finally found one that met my specification requirements, only to see that it would be delivered by September 30. That’s two months out! And the price was still full price, plus the Covid inflation cost added on. I will continue my search through Labor Day, with hopes of finding either a back-to-school or Labor Day sale.

And as for car shopping, ugghhh! Have you noticed the shortage of vehicles in auto dealership lots? My part-time job location has a window overlooking a Ford dealership. Pre-Covid, their parking lot was packed with vehicles. Now they have many less vehicles that they space out in the lot to make it look like there are more than there really are. To recap, there is a shortage of NEW vehicle inventory due to a chip shortage, which has caused the price of NEW vehicles to skyrocket. And because of these high prices for NEW vehicles, many car shoppers are switching their search to USED vehicles, which has caused the price of USED vehicles to skyrocket.

In conclusion, the Federal government (and others) believe that our current inflation situation is “transitory” or temporary. I don’t buy it, but time will tell. If this inflation is transitory, then prices will roll back to pre-Covid pricing within a few months from now. The longer that inflation sticks around, however, the more likely that it is not temporary, and will continue on.  This will bring about more pain to the economy, and more hardship for us, the individual consumers. Remain vigilant with your expenses. Spend wisely.

 

Market Update

(photo by Hello I’m Nik on Unsplash)

Here is a graph that reflects the stock performance of the four major indexes over the past TEN years (per TD Ameritrade website).

Orange: Nasdaq (technology & other) increase of ~475%

Blue: S&P500 (80% of market) increase of ~250%

Purple: Russell (small caps) increase of ~200%

Aqua: Dow Jones (30 Belweathers) increase of ~200%

Notice that since the initial pandemic drop during 2019, the Nasdaq (orange) has gone up around 275% in about two years. Amazing!

This past Friday, August 6, 2021, the S&P500 closed at an all-time high after the monthly jobs report came in better than expected, as the economy continues to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, and investors shake off delta variant concerns (per TD Ameritrade website).

And per Sven Henrich’s twitter feed (@NorthmanTrader): S&P500 “new highs on Friday with only 45 components making new highs.”

The market indexes can be broken down into eleven sectors. While the INDEXES provide a general view of the market, the SECTORS provide guidance regarding how specific segments of the market are performing.

Here is a chart reflecting the most recent ONE YEAR performance of all eleven sectors against the S&P500 (per TD Ameritrade website). All sectors are in the green!

The following chart shows sector performance over the LAST MONTH timeframe (per TD Ameritrade website).

Financials and IT have led the way in both timeframes. On the plus side, Health Care and Communication Services have moved up. On the negative side, Consumer Discretionary and Energy have slid down to the bottom.

Within each SECTOR there are INDUSTRIES. We have identified the Consumer Discretionary SECTOR as the poorest performer over the past month. Which INDUSTRIES are driving this downtrend? The chart below lists all INDUSTRIES within the Consumer Discretionary SECTOR.

While one month is not a listed timeframe in the chart below, we can still use it as an illustration. The Diversified Consumer Services INDUSTRY is the only industry that has been down over the past three years. And the Internet & Direct Marketing Retail INDUSTRY has been down over the past year. Also, scanning the “YTD” and “1 Year” columns, it looks like all INDUSTRIES have seen a slowdown (per TD Ameritrade website).

Let’s focus on the Internet & Direct Marketing Retail INDUSTRY from the chart above. The chart BELOW reflects some of the specific companies that make up the Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Industry. On top of the list is Amazon (AMZN) (per TD Ameritrade website).

Here is an AMZN 30-Day Chart broken down in one-hour increments (per tastyworks trading platform).

Notice the big down gap around July 29. That is when AMZN reported earnings for the most recent quarter. They did not meet street estimates, which caused the stock to drop about 250 points. And since then (one week in) the stock has remained flat. I would venture to guess that this big drop in AMZN is one of the main drivers for the Internet & Direct Marketing Retail INDUSTRY and Consumer Discretionary SECTOR decrease (over the past month), as AMZN is, by far, the biggest company in this Sector-Industry.

To conclude, money is constantly flowing in and out of the sectors and sub-industries. Recognizing these shifts can be helpful in assessing where to invest your own money next.

 

 

A little Bob Odenkirk humor

(photo by Tim Mossholder on Unsplash)

Good evening. It is Saturday night, and I have just completed a full day of events away from my computer. My day started with a few hours of bookkeeping work, followed by errands, and culminating with attending a surprise birthday party for a long-time friend. Needless to say I am tired. So I am providing a light, and hopefully humorous post, with the help of actor, writer, comedian, and producer, Bob Odenkirk.

I am not up on any current television shows. That is partly due to my lack of cable television. Instead I do spend time on YouTube watching videos of interest. However, I was turned on to the hit TV show, Breaking Bad upon receiving the first two seasons on DVD as a gift. I subsequently got my hands on the remaining four seasons (six in total). I enjoyed the characters so much that I obtained DVDs for the spinoff show, Better Call Saul. I have seen the first four seasons, but not the fifth. So, if you’ve seen it, please don’t tell me what happens, pretty please?! The sixth season has been in production. Bob Odenkirk was a character in Breaking Bad, and is the lead character in Better Call Saul.

Bob Odenkirk has become one of my favorite actors. Wishing him a speedy recovery, and looking forward to his future work. In the meantime, below are some YouTube videos that I uncovered featuring Bob Odenkirk.

Tomorrow I’ll be back to blogging more in depth, possibly on the current state of the stock market. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy these clips…

Bob Odenkirk on Seinfeld (1996)(4:08 mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsV0uIsuEmo

Mr. Show: Iguana (1996)(5:23 mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ApTaeckdLo

Mr. Show: Lie Detector (4:12 mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdIDwYW_JZg

Bob Odenkirk Was Banned from “Late Night With Conan O’Brien” (2003)(7:03 min): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWf2P9pdoBI

Arrested Development – Marriage Counselor (feat. Bob Odenkirk – S1, Ep5)(2:18min): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ek6C3z76NGE

Best of Saul Goodman on Breaking Bad (4:57 mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8R_7L8h0Cc

 

Health Check In

(photo by David Clode on Unsplash)

How is your health? Are you paying attention to your mind and body to assess what needs attention? What action steps do you need to take for your own self-care?

I have been tired for several weeks, and especially today. I got a walk in this morning. And did some stock trading. But beyond that, it’s been a day of rest. I took a short afternoon nap, and now I’m typing here.

Why am I so tired? I am a light sleeper, and rarely sleep through the night. However, my sleep patterns vary a lot. This week, I have been waking up around 2am each night, and am unable to go back to sleep until 4 or 5am. Last week, I slept well until around 4am unable to go back to sleep.

Last week I was good with my (almost) daily exercise routines. This week, because I’ve been sleeping later than usual, to make up for my middle of the night wake ups, I have not kept up with my exercise, using the excuse that it’s too late to go out due to the heat and humidity. The humidity might be factor too. In recent weeks, I have done a good job of hydrating most days, usually first thing in the morning. But perhaps I need even more water during the hot summer months.

Similarities to both this week and last are that I have been eating very healthy meals, mostly (but not all) vegetarian. And I have stayed away from sugar and most processed foods. Perhaps I’m going through some sugar withdrawals, lol.

Also, I have not been keeping up with my nighttime rituals before bedtime. These steps may include shutting down all electrical screens (computer, phone, tv), playing relaxing music, meditating, deep breathing, journaling, or drawing, as well as eating dinner earlier in the evening. In the past, I have found these steps to be helpful in switching my brain off from over thinking mode to a quieter mind. This leads to a relaxed state that is conducive to better quality sleep.

Another reason why my sleep may be out of sorts is because I’ve gone through a lot of life changes over the past year. After a long stint as my parents’ primary caregiver,

(details here in a prior blog post:)   https://calmnsensehealth.com/2021/05/23/parental-caregiver/

I now have time to myself. Yet, I’m still working through the process of creating a new way of living, and implementing new habits that align with the new life directions that I crave.

I also recognize that my mind and body still need more time to rest after the parental caregiver challenges that I experienced, and subsequent estate work as executor that also took a lot of time and mental energy. Using my last corporate accounting job as an example, it has been my experience that I will (usually) meet difficult deadlines, no matter the cost to my health. Somehow my body pulls me through until the project is completed. Then, a short time after the deadline, I get sick.

I did not take great care of myself while caring for my parents. I knew that “caring for the caregiver” was necessary, but I just couldn’t figure out how. So as I begin my new journey as a health coach, stock trader, and other descriptors yet to be put in place, I sense that I need more time to rest up my mind and body, before forging ahead at a faster and all encompassing clip.

In my health example above, I have looked at both my physical symptoms and underlying emotional challenges in order to uncover what I may need from a health standpoint. Now it is up to me to implement the action steps that will get my mind and body back in balance, and ready to face the world head on.

Work through your own health concerns, and begin taking action steps that get you back to balance. Wishing you good health.

My Short Market Bias

(photo by Aidan Hancock on Unsplash)

I have already stated in previous posts, my view is the stock market is overpriced and I’m waiting for a stock market pull-back. However, I want to be clear that I am in the minority. There are very few bears left in this bull market.

Individual investors continue to “buy the dip” after the rare small drops in the market. The Federal Reserve continues to pour money into the market, feeling the need to help hold the market up, even while stating over-and-over that the economy is in great shape. And frankly, there is no where else to invest money at this time. With extremely low interest rates from savings accounts, CDs, and bonds, interest income can be found no where. It makes sense that the professional trading firms continue to invest their client’s money in the market.

Had I stuck to the mantra, “the trend is your friend”, I’d be in better shape. We have been in a bull market for years now, with an additional massive surge to the upside during the pandemic. Many professional traders recommend trading what’s in front of you, not what you think will happen. And that advice has held up well.

Perhaps I’m a little skittish at these high levels because I lived through the tech bubble of 1999-2000 that started with soaring tech names and ended with a huge drop. There is a saying that the market goes up like an escalator (slow and steady), and down like an elevator (fast and hard). However, during the 1999-2000 technology stock bubble and other times, like last year, it felt like the opposite, with a massive elevator up.

I just saw a twitter post this morning by Carl Quintanilla (CNBC, NBC) quoting Goldman Sachs, the big investment bank: “We raise our S&P 500 year-end 2021 price target to 4700 (from 4300) and our 2022 target to 4900 (from 4600). The combination of higher-than-expected S&P 500 earnings and lower-than-expected interest rates drive our upgraded price targets…” [Kostin]

Many companies that have reported earnings for the most recent quarter have reflected fantastic financial results. I would argue that these great earnings reports are already factored into the market. Tech companies like Apple reported an all-time great latest quarterly earnings, yet their stock dipped with news that they foresee a slowdown next quarter due to the Covid variant picking up steam. On the other hand, Amazon had less than stellar numbers, which saw their stock price drop.

There are also plenty of companies that have seen their stock prices come down. While the overall market indexes (S&P, Nasdaq, Dow) continue to flirt with all-time highs, the reality is that all companies are not created equal in these market indexes. Big tech companies, for example, are weighted more heavily in these indexes than smaller companies. In effect, for most of this year, big name tech stocks (and others) have been carrying the S&P and Nasdaq indexes, even though many other company stock prices are down.

The Russell index which represents smaller companies is one index that has been in a downtrend recently. To quote an email I received this morning from tastytrade: “With all the attention given to the rallies in SPY, QQQ, and even DIA, it may be surprising to know that IWM is the same price it was six months ago. On Feb 4, IWM closed at 218.62. Yesterday, it closed at 218.11.

What am I doing in my own portfolio? First, I have cash on hand to buy stocks after a pull-back occurs (whenever that will be). Second, when I uncover a stock that looks like a good entry point for a long position based on chart technicals, I’m in the trade short-term. Either the stock goes up and I close out for a profit, or I close the trade for a small loss. Third, and the majority of my strategies, I utilize stock options (not for all investors) to enter mostly short positions.

To conclude, the stock market is at all-time highs and continues it’s upward trend, even today. No one knows which way the market will go in the future. It may continue up for a while. However, based on the economic data that I see, I am taking a contrarian stance.