Month: August 2021

(photo by Meric Dagli on Unsplash)

How do we determine how the OVERALL stock market is doing? We can look at charts of individual stocks. However, 2,400 companies trade on the NY Stock Exchange alone. Instead, we can look at various indexes, which group together a bunch of individual stocks. In the U.S., the three biggest indexes are the S&P500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones. I also like to include the Russell. In addition to these indexes, there are 5,000 others that make up the U.S. equity market, allowing us to dice and slice the market into many subcategories. Indexes can be constructed in a variety of ways, but they are commonly identified by capitalization (size) and sector segregation (similar businesses grouped together).

News broadcasts tend to focus on the Dow Jones, as it is one of the oldest and well-known indexes. It includes the stocks of 30 of the largest and most influential companies in the U.S. Because the Dow contains only 30 stocks, it really does not carry as much weight as the S&P500 (500 stocks), Nasdaq Composite (2,500 stocks), and Russell 2000 (2,000 stocks).

The S&P500 Index represents 80% of the total value of the U.S. stock market. Generally, the S&P500 reflects movement in the U.S. stock market as a whole.

The Nasdaq Composite Index is more technology focused, although it does include other non-technology industries, as well as some companies NOT based in the U.S.

The Russell 2000 focuses on smaller companies in the U.S. market in various sectors. The largest company in this index has a market cap of $32 billion, while the smaller ones have market caps around $200 million. This index also contains a lot of U.S. community banks. At least it did until June 2021. Every year, indexes recalibrate to remove and add companies based on how the company capitalization (size) has changed. Because bank stock prices have dropped over the past year, relative to other sectors, many banks’ capitalization dropped below the Russell $200 million threshold. I’m not sure how many banks got dropped.

The first thing I look at each trading day is which direction these four market indexes are moving. Many times they go up and down in unison. Other times, as an example, the Nasdaq may skyrocket higher due to tech stock focus, while the Russell (small caps) are dropping. This helps me gauge how the markets are trending.

There is overlap between these four indexes, because some of the same companies are included in more than one index. For example, Apple (ticker: AAPL) is a component of both the S&P (broader market) and the Nasdaq (high number of tech stocks). But AAPL is not included in the Russell (smaller companies). Thus, the S&P and Nasdaq have a stronger correlation between each other than against the Russell.

The screenshot below shows the correlation between:

SPY = S&P500; IWM=Russell; QQQ=Nasdaq; DIA=Dow

Looking at the first column, notice that SPY is the header. Looking down to the second row – column 1 – IWM has a 38% negative correlation to SPY. The third row – column 1 – QQQ has a 96% positive correlation to SPY. While the fourth row – column 1 – DIA has a negative 36% percent correlation to SPY. That means that generally (but not always), SPY and QQQ will move in similar directions; and IWM and DIA generally move independently of SPY and QQQ.

(above chart per MicroAxis.com)

Economic scenarios can affect various stock sectors differently. For example, I have noticed that changes in interest rates have a different impact on QQQ (Nasdaq-Tech heavy) versus IWM (Russell – Banks). Interest rates are currently low. In today’s interest rate environment, you can borrow money (i.e., auto loan, mortgage) at a very low rate. And, if you deposit money in a savings account, the interest you earn will also be very low. Banks make more money when there is a wider gap between the interest rate banks make off of your loans versus the interest rate the bank has to pay you each month for keeping your savings account funds with them. Banks have not been making enough net revenue on this spread in recent times. However, the outlook for banks going forward is favorable, because at some point interest rates will increase, producing a bigger net income spread.

Tech stocks are impacted by interest rates in reverse of banks. When interest rates are low, Tech stocks can purchase more materials at lower prices. But when interest rates eventually go back up, Tech stocks will have to pay more.

To summarize, following broad market trends can help in formulating opinions and trade ideas. Overarching trends can last a long time, such as straight up during this current multi-year bull market. But underneath the main trend, we can uncover money flows in and out of different sectors and industries that also help in assessing our next moves.

Notes: (www.investopedia.com was used to formulate index definitions)

(photo by Alec Favale on Unsplash)

Where can we invest our money right now? This is a tricky question to answer. Hold cash in a savings account earning 0.01%? No. Lock cash into a CD for 1 year earning 0.6%? No. How about bonds? No, extremely low interest rates too.

Stocks? Under normal circumstances, investing in the stock market is a great way to grow your money. And if you have invested in the market in recent years, congratulations. The markets are at or near all-time highs.

Here is a one-year chart of the SPY (S&P500) through today… Straight Up!

Many companies (but not all) are reporting all-time great earnings numbers for the most recent quarter, especially certain big name tech companies. With few exceptions, day-after-day the market rips higher, like today. Yet, I am leary to jump in here. Some of the big tech companies have stated they anticipate their next quarter to be weaker due to the the Covid variant getting worse, causing slowdowns in production.

If I thought the stock market still had upside from here, I would still wait for a pullback before investing. Two Monday’s ago the markets went down (a rarity).  The following days, Tue through Fri, the market cranked back up to all-time highs. That’s because investors are still “buying the dip”.

According to some stock market experts, another big reason the market continues to trend up is because the Federal Reserve Bank is pouring money into the market at record amounts. In effect, the federal government is printing extra money solely for the purpose of investing it in the market. Actually, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confessed this fact on 60 Minutes last year (creating digital currency to invest in bonds). See 30 second clip here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK_rYS8L3kI

Thus, stock market prices continue to move higher, in big part due to this federal support. What happens when the Feds ease this program?

I would be remiss to not bring up the topic of inflation. You may have noticed that prices for just about everything continue to go up. The “experts” state that the current inflationary trend is “transitory” (temporary) and that we will see a decrease in prices in just a few months. I’m not so sure.

Due to rising costs, companies have to pay more to purchase their raw materials. And finally some companies are increasing minimum wage to $15. However, no doubt these companies are passing these higher costs on to us, the consumers.

And as another example, there is a shortage of new cars being sold due to a shortage of computer chips. This has limited the number of vehicles for sale on car lots, which has led to astronomical prices for NEW vehicles. This in turn has caused prospective vehicle purchasers to scour the USED car, van, and truck inventories, causing a lot of demand, which in turn has caused extremely high prices too. The fair market value of many used cars today is worth MORE than the initial purchase price. Who knows when these sky high prices will drop back down to earth.

So where can you invest your money now?

Pay off debt, such as credit cards, and perhaps, pay more each month toward your mortgage. Your borrowing rate is most likely higher than the savings interest rate you could earn by keeping your money in the bank.

If you don’t have one yet, build up an emergency cash fund.

And while I do NOT recommend the following for any of my readers, in order to be transparent with my own trading, I am using a small portion of cash in my brokerage account to “short” the market. Most individual investors buy a stock at a low price, and sell it at a higher price for a profit. The opposite is true when “shorting”. A short position means that you sell a stock to open a trade, anticipating a drop in the stock, and then buy back the stock at a lower price for a profit. However, shorting (selling) a stock is viewed as more risky than buying a stock. If I buy 100 shares of stock currently trading at $25, if the stock goes to $0 (i.e., bankruptcy), I risk losing $2,500. However, if I short a $25 stock, in theory the stock can go higher forever. Thus, I would have unlimited risk in this scenario.

I also have cash on the sidelines. If (or when) the market ever drops significantly, I will have cash available to purchase ‘strong’ stocks at a discount.

(photo by Micheile Henderson on Unsplash)

It’s August 1st. And that means it’s time for another Ultimate Blog Challenge. If interested in participating as a blogger, here is a link to Paul Taubman’s website: https://ultimateblogchallenge.com Give it a try!

In the last challenge during May 2021, I chose to write about healthy habits that you can apply to your own life utilizing small steps over time.  I’m going to change things up this time around. My focus for this challenge will be on the stock market, personal finance, and other random topics of interest.

Whether you handle your investments and personal finances on your own, or you delegate these responsibilities to someone else, it is important to have an understanding of these topics so that you can make educated decisions on your financial situation that move you towards your financial goals.

The pandemic has put many individuals at risk financially, while others have thrived.

Those hurting may have lost jobs as certain businesses struggled to remain afloat during lockdown. And starting today, renters who have struggled to keep up with rent payments may be at risk at losing their apartments as the eviction moratorium deadline has just passed without the Federal government voting last Friday to extend this timeframe.

Those thriving financially may have had a steady job throughout the pandemic. And as the stock market has steadily moved higher and higher throughout lockdown after its initial drop, those who kept long positions in the market have done well.

The stock market is at or near all-time highs.  No one knows which way the market will go. I personally thought the market was over-bought a few years ago. If you have invested long in stocks during the pandemic, it has been easy money. And perhaps that will continue. However, at some point, volatility will return. And when it does, investors will need to be more selective on the investments that they make.

My goal for this blog challenge is to increase my knowledge of the markets and personal finance topics in order to become a better stock investor. If I can explain complex subject matter in easy to understand language, then you and I can both benefit.

Now for the usual disclaimers. I am not a professional stock trader, nor do I have any professional trading licenses.  I only trade stocks for myself as a personal investor. And while I do have a CPA license (currently in inactive status), these blogging topics are not my area of expertise. Thus, please consult with your own stock broker or accountant for guidance.

If you have any personal finance topics that you’d like me to write about, please let me know in the comment section below.

I look forward to researching and sharing these topics with you during this month. I hope that you get something beneficial out of it in order to reach your own financial goals, and to thrive.